Odisha may come under the influence of another low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, according to the latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The anticipated weather system could bring more rainfall to the state and potentially dampen the ongoing festive season.
According to the European model, the prospective low-pressure system may gradually intensify into a depression and subsequently a deep depression. The possibility of the system strengthening slightly beyond the deep depression stage cannot also be ruled out at this stage.
System Formation Over Bay of Bengal
The possibility of a weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal has increased compared to earlier forecasts. According to projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 20–40 per cent possibility of a cyclonic storm developing over the North Indian Ocean between October 14 and 20.
Weather conditions are currently considered favourable for the formation of a low-pressure system. However, it is still too early to determine exactly where the system will develop and what its eventual movement will be.
Wind Shear Could Determine Intensity
Meteorologists say the strength of the potential system will largely depend on atmospheric conditions in the coming days. If vertical wind shear decreases, the system could become more organised and stronger.
A reduction in the difference in wind speed and direction between the 850 hPa and 200 hPa levels could create more favourable conditions for further intensification.
A clearer picture of the system’s potential strength and impact is expected to emerge around October 10 to 12.
Favourable Conditions for Cyclogenesis
Weather patterns over the Bay of Bengal are currently undergoing changes as the southwest monsoon weakens. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) may also become more favourable over the Indian Ocean.
Both ECMWF and GEFS model projections indicate that atmospheric conditions could support the formation and strengthening of a low-pressure system.
However, meteorologist Professor Surendranath Pasupalak has advised people not to panic, stating that there is currently no indication of any direct threat to Odisha.
Rainfall Likely Across Odisha
The state is expected to receive rainfall over the next three days. Bhubaneswar, which has witnessed relatively high temperatures over the past few days, may also experience some relief, with temperatures likely to fall by around 2–3 degrees Celsius during the next two to three days.
The weather department has forecast light to moderate rainfall at several places, with the possibility of heavy rainfall at isolated locations until October 9.
Thunderstorms Forecast in Several Districts
During the next 24 hours, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may occur at one or two places in several districts, including Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Sundargarh, Keonjhar, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Dhenkanal, Angul, Deogarh, Sambalpur, Jharsuguda, Subarnapur, Balangir, Nuapada and Bargarh.
Residents in these areas have been advised to remain cautious during thunderstorms and lightning activity.
Festive Season May Face Weather Disruptions
With another potential low-pressure system being closely monitored, rainfall could remain a concern during the festive period. However, officials and weather experts are expected to get a clearer understanding of the system’s track, intensity and potential impact over the next few days.
For now, there is no indication of a direct threat to Odisha, but the evolving weather system over the Bay of Bengal will remain under close observation.