A By-Poll That Sets the Stage
As Odisha gears up for its first by-election since the 2024 general polls, the Nuapada Assembly seat has turned into a political cauldron of high drama and strategic intrigue. The by-poll, necessitated by the unfortunate demise of four-time BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, is shaping up as a litmus test for the ruling BJP government, the opposition BJD’s staying power, and Congress’s struggle for revival.
Stakes High for the Ruling BJP
For the BJP, this is the first major electoral challenge since taking charge in Odisha. Once a weak opposition party that often faltered in its own strongholds, the BJP now faces a crucial test of public confidence. A victory here would be a significant boost for Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, consolidating his mandate. Conversely, a defeat would expose early cracks in the party’s armour and put the government in a defensive spot.
Candidate selection, however, remains a thorny issue. Senior leader Basant Panda, who won the seat twice between 1995 and 2014, is lobbying hard for his son Abhinandan Panda, despite his poor third-place finish in 2024. Meanwhile, the BJP top brass is sceptical, as multiple aspirants are eyeing the ticket.
Adding to the complexity, whispers suggest BJP leaders may seek support from Dholakia’s family—his wife Kalpana or son Jay—as potential candidates. Such a move could alter equations but also risk intensifying existing rifts within the Panda camp.
BJD Banking on Sympathy and Legacy
Relegated to the opposition after years of dominance, the Biju Janata Dal is leaning on its past electoral success and the sympathy factor following Dholakia’s death. His emphatic 2024 victory margin of over 11,000 votes demonstrates the party’s enduring strength in Nuapada.
The BJD is likely to field a family member—either Jay Dholakia or Kalpana Dholakia. Party insiders consider Jay the frontrunner, while others believe Kalpana would be a stronger symbolic choice, despite her public reluctance. The decision carries risks: choosing outside the family could alienate loyal supporters, while a family candidate’s defeat might deepen cracks in the party.
Congress Eyes a Revival Opportunity
For the Congress, Nuapada offers a rare window to re-establish itself as the primary opposition. Despite its spirited assembly presence, the party has repeatedly struggled to convert efforts into votes.
Ghasiram Majhi, who independently secured second place in earlier contests, is seen as the strongest contender. Backed by PCC chief Bhakta Charan Das, Majhi’s candidacy has momentum, but internal rivalries among tribal groups in the district threaten to derail unity.
In contrast, former PCC president Sarat Pattanayak, who contested in 2024 and managed only around 15,000 votes, remains a weaker option. Much depends on whether Congress can overcome factional divides and rally behind a single face.
Symbolism and Strategy in Play
The by-election is already charged with symbolism. CM Mohan Charan Majhi’s sudden visit to Dholakia’s memorial was seen as a calculated political gesture, signalling BJP’s aggressive intent. Meanwhile, the BJD is counting on its organisational strength and grassroots networks to mobilise local support, though Naveen Patnaik himself may skip personal campaigning.
Congress, under Das’s leadership, is preparing a vigorous push, hoping to capitalise on BJP-BJD rivalries.
Beyond a Seat: A Political Barometer
The Nuapada by-election is more than just a contest for one seat. It has become a barometer of shifting power equations in Odisha politics. With rumours of alliances, defections, and family legacies dominating the narrative, the outcome could reshape the state’s political dynamics ahead of future elections.
The burning question remains: Will heritage and sympathy triumph, or will new power equations prevail? One thing is certain—the western Odisha battleground of Nuapada is keeping the entire state on edge.