The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday (March 11) confirmed that the cyclonic circulation over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining Malacca Strait has intensified into a low-pressure area. The system is expected to move west–northwestward and become more marked by the evening of November 24, developing into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal.

System to Strengthen Rapidly Over the Next 48 Hours

According to IMD’s latest bulletin, the low-pressure system will continue to move in a west–northwest direction for the next 48 hours, gradually intensifying. It is forecast to evolve first into a well-marked low-pressure area, and then into a depression by November 24 over the same region.

Meteorologists are closely monitoring sea surface temperatures, wind shear and moisture conditions — all critical determinants of cyclone formation.

Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Alert for Heavy Rainfall

The Andaman & Nicobar Islands have been placed on alert in anticipation of adverse weather.
Forecast details include:

• Isolated to scattered light-to-moderate rain on November 22 and 23

• Increase in rainfall intensity from November 24 onward

• Advisory issued to fishermen not to venture into the southeast Bay of Bengal until November 23

District administrations have been directed to be on standby for possible heavy rain and strong winds.

Possible Cyclone Development Around November 28

Although the exact post-November 25 track remains uncertain, IMD notes that some global weather models indicate the potential for rapid intensification.

The system may strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm around November 28, subject to favourable environmental conditions.

Continuous monitoring of its track and intensity will be crucial in the coming days.

Odisha and Andhra Pradesh Coastlines Under Vigil

While it is too early to predict landfall, the coastal areas of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh are already under close observation due to their vulnerability to Bay of Bengal cyclones. Authorities have been advised to remain prepared for potential high waves, strong winds and heavy rainfall alerts if the system intensifies as forecast.

With atmospheric conditions currently favourable for strengthening, the upcoming week will be crucial for determining whether the system evolves into the season’s next major cyclone.

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