In a dramatic twist just hours before the closure of key Bihar assembly nominations, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) announced its withdrawal from the Mahagathbandhan, citing alleged marginalisation in seat-sharing arrangements. JMM chief Hemant Soren claimed that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress orchestrated a “political conspiracy,” prompting his party to vow a “befitting lesson” to the two allies.

The immediate impact of JMM’s exit is disorder in the opposition camp, potentially increasing the NDA’s prospects in the state. JMM had planned to contest six border constituencies — Chakai, Dhamdaha, Katoria, Manihari, Jamui, and Pirpainti — slated for polling on November 11, a move that had initially created a buzz before quickly fading with Monday’s withdrawal.

Allegations of Betrayal and Past Grievances

Party spokesperson Manoj Pandey accused RJD of cunning tactics and Congress of negligence, claiming that JMM was “misled and kept in the dark.” Jharkhand Tourism Minister Sudivya Kumar recalled past support extended to RJD in Bihar (2015) and Congress in Jharkhand elections (2019), criticizing the unfulfilled promises. “This humiliation demands a sharp reply; we will look into the state of relationships in Jharkhand,” he said, hinting at a possible wider split in the INDIA bloc.

Political Paradox: Minimal JMM Influence in Bihar

Ironically, JMM’s constituencies have historically had minimal impact in Bihar elections:

• 2020: 5 seats, 0.2% vote share (~25,000 votes)

• 2015: 32 seats, 0.3% vote share, no wins

• 2010: 41 seats, 0.6% vote share, 1 seat

Analysts suggest that JMM’s departure could prevent vote-splitting in tribal-dominated areas such as Kishanganj, Banka, and Bhagalpur, potentially benefiting the Mahagathbandhan in some regions despite the rift.

Opposition Infighting and NDA Advantage

The split has already drawn criticism and ridicule on social media. BJP’s Shehzad Poonawalla dubbed the alliance a “Gaanthbandhan,” highlighting its internal knots, while Union Minister Chirag Paswan sarcastically called the disarray a “gift” to the NDA. Political analysts note that RJD’s strategy of fielding 143 candidates, including “friendly fights” with Congress and CPI, underscores deep divisions that could divert tribal votes to Nitish Kumar’s NDA, potentially securing a third consecutive term for the alliance in Bihar.

High Stakes Ahead of Polls

With polling scheduled for November 6 and 11 and results to be announced on November 14, Bihar remains a political powder keg. While NDA leaders are already celebrating, the volatile state of opposition unity means the final outcome is uncertain, and every vote could prove decisive in the cutthroat electoral arena.

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