India’s overall monsoon rainfall deficit has widened to 13% between June 1 and August 15, despite good rainfall in some states over the past two weeks. The eastern and northeastern regions have recorded the sharpest decline, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

As of August 15, the eastern and northeastern region had a 27.1% rainfall deficit, while southern India recorded a 20.1% deficit and northwest India 11.4%.

Rain Deficit Raises Agricultural Concerns

The rainfall shortage has increased concerns in several agriculture-dependent states. Between June 1 and August 16, Bihar recorded a 41% rainfall deficit, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 37%, Punjab at 36%, Assam at 26% and Uttar Pradesh at 22%.

The shortage is also affecting the sowing of key Kharif crops. According to the Agriculture Ministry’s All India Cropwise Progressive Area Sown Report, the total Kharif crop area sown as of August 14 was 25.10 lakh hectares lower than last year, a decline of 2.07%.

Paddy recorded the largest decline, with sowing down by 14.37 lakh hectares, or 3.67%, compared with the previous year. Pulses were down by around 35,000 hectares, while oilseed cultivation declined by approximately 89,000 hectares.

Low-Pressure System May Bring Relief

The latest IMD bulletin said a low-pressure area has formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of West Bengal and north Odisha.

Under its influence, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand during the next two days. Odisha is also likely to receive heavy rainfall during August 16-17.

Rainfall Outlook for Other Regions

The western end of the monsoon trough is currently positioned north of its normal location. As a result, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over the Western Himalayan region and parts of Uttar Pradesh over the next few days.

Northeastern India may also receive heavy rainfall, while Assam and Meghalaya are likely to experience intense rainfall during the week.

Meghalaya currently has the highest rainfall deficit at 58%. If the forecast rainfall materialises, it could partially reduce the state’s seasonal deficit.

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