A prolonged El Niño phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean could create severe global climate challenges and remain active until early 2027, according to weather experts and international climate organisations. The unusual warming of Pacific Ocean waters has raised concerns over extreme weather events, food shortages, and economic disruptions worldwide.

Scientists Warn of Extended El Niño Impact

Normally, El Niño remains active for around 9 to 12 months, but this time experts fear it could continue for a much longer period, making it one of the longest-lasting climate challenges in recent history.

The US-based Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the impact of El Niño may continue until 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also expressed concern over the unusual oceanic conditions.

Forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise by 2 degrees Celsius or more above normal levels, indicating the possibility of a strong “Super El Niño” event.

Global Agriculture and Economy at Risk

International agencies have warned that a prolonged El Niño could push up food prices and trigger inflation worldwide. Countries already facing higher fertiliser costs may experience additional pressure on agricultural production.

Experts fear drought conditions in Asia, Africa and Australia, while parts of South America could witness heavy rainfall and flooding. Crop losses, reduced water availability, and damage to ecosystems could affect global food supplies.

The long-term impact may continue even after ocean temperatures return to normal, affecting soil moisture, reservoirs, fisheries and coral reefs.

India Faces Major Weather Concerns

For India, El Niño remains a serious concern as it directly influences the southwest monsoon. Historically, El Niño years are often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and increased drought risks.

The phenomenon could lead to irregular rainfall, heatwaves and reduced precipitation across South Asia. Rain-dependent agriculture, irrigation systems, hydropower projects and drinking water supplies may face significant challenges.

Food Prices May Rise Globally

A decline in agricultural output could increase prices of essential commodities such as rice, wheat, pulses and vegetables in India and other Asian countries.

Experts have urged global policymakers to prepare early strategies to control food price volatility, strengthen climate resilience and prevent a wider humanitarian crisis caused by extreme weather conditions.

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A potentially strong El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean this year, raising concerns among climate scientists about its possible impact on global weather patterns. According to the latest forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), sea surface temperatures in a key equatorial Pacific region could rise by as much as 3.5°C above average by November.

Some climate models are predicting even higher temperature anomalies. If these projections materialize, the event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes ever recorded, with far-reaching consequences for weather systems worldwide.

Pacific Ocean Temperatures Set to Rise

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. Although the warming occurs far from many countries, it can significantly alter atmospheric circulation patterns across the globe.

The phenomenon is often associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, heatwaves and severe storms. Meteorological agencies around the world are closely monitoring conditions in the equatorial Pacific, as even small temperature changes can influence weather thousands of kilometres away.

Potential Impact on India

For India, El Niño is particularly important because it often affects the southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of the country’s annual rainfall. While not every El Niño leads to weak monsoon conditions, several drought years in India have historically coincided with strong El Niño events.

Climate experts say a powerful El Niño later this year could influence rainfall patterns, temperatures and agricultural output across the country. However, scientists caution that seasonal forecasts may still change in the coming months.

Scientists Monitoring Developments

Despite forecasts indicating a strong El Niño, its exact impact remains uncertain. Global climate agencies will continue tracking ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions throughout the year. Further observations over the coming months will provide a clearer picture of how the developing El Niño could affect India’s monsoon and weather patterns across the world.

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