A series of simulations of a hypothetical 11-day conflict between the United States and Iran has sparked debate over the potential outcome of such a war, highlighting heavy losses, global economic disruption and the possibility of a prolonged stalemate. The scenario also raises questions about the strategic objectives associated with former US President Donald Trump, particularly his long-standing aim of dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme and triggering regime change in Tehran.

Conflict Triggered by Nuclear Tensions

The simulated conflict begins with US-led strikes aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. While some nuclear facilities near Tehran are reportedly damaged, the strikes fall short of completely destroying the country’s nuclear capabilities.

The scenario suggests that the strategic goal of regime change also fails to materialise. Instead, Mojtaba Khamenei emerges as the new Supreme Leader after the early death of Ali Khamenei, defying expectations in Washington that political upheaval might weaken the Iranian leadership.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Shock

One of the most dramatic developments in the war simulation is Iran’s move to seal the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit route. The closure sends crude oil prices soaring and disrupts energy markets worldwide.

Iran also launches missile and drone attacks against US military installations across West Asia. Bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain are forced to evacuate personnel following repeated strikes. Meanwhile, Israel reports significant damage in Tel Aviv as the conflict spills across the region.

Massive Financial and Military Losses

The simulation estimates that the United States suffers damages exceeding ₹23,188 crore in the short span of the conflict.

Among the major losses:

• Destruction of radar systems at Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar costing around ₹10,114 crore.

• Damage to THAAD missile defence system installations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, estimated at ₹9,000 crore.

• Loss of F‑15E Strike Eagle jets in Kuwait worth approximately ₹2,593 crore.

• Destruction of MQ‑9 Reaper drones valued at about ₹827 crore.

Iran’s Military Infrastructure Severely Hit

Despite its counterattacks, the simulation shows that Iran’s military capabilities are also heavily degraded. Several bases belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are reduced to rubble, and missile stockpiles are significantly depleted.

However, the continued counterstrikes from Tehran demonstrate the country’s capacity to absorb damage and continue fighting, suggesting that a decisive victory for either side may be difficult to achieve in the short term.

Calls for De-Escalation in the Region

As the simulated war drags on, Arab leaders across the region call for an immediate halt to hostilities, warning that the conflict could destabilise the broader Middle East.

The exercise highlights how prolonged fighting could disrupt global trade, trigger energy crises and reshape geopolitical alliances.

For Trump’s strategy, the simulation suggests that even a powerful military campaign might struggle to achieve its objectives quickly. Meanwhile, Iran’s ability to survive and retaliate despite severe damage portrays a resilient adversary — battered but far from defeated.