Thunderstorms, Gusty Winds and Lightning Likely Across Odisha

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast continued Kalbaisakhi rain activity across Odisha for the next five days, bringing thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds to several parts of the state.

A Yellow Warning has been issued for 21 districts over the next 24 hours due to the possibility of thunderstorms accompanied by gusty surface winds reaching speeds of 30 to 50 kmph.

The warning excludes nine districts — Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Balangir, Sonepur, Sambalpur, Boudh, Deogarh, Jharsuguda and Bargarh.

According to the weather department, the unstable weather conditions are expected to continue till May 19.

Monsoon Likely to Reach Kerala Early

The IMD has also predicted an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 26, nearly four days ahead of the normal arrival date.

Within the next 24 hours, the monsoon is likely to advance into parts of the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Weather experts say the early progress of the monsoon is being closely monitored as atmospheric conditions continue to evolve rapidly over the Indian Ocean region.

Low Pressure Active Over Bay of Bengal

A low-pressure area currently active over the southwest Bay of Bengal has intensified into a well-marked low-pressure system. It remains positioned over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.

However, meteorologists have clarified that the system is unlikely to have any direct impact on Odisha at present.

El Niño Conditions May Challenge Upcoming Monsoon Season

Weather expert Surendranath Pashupalak, after analysing data from international agencies including the NCEP and NOAA Climate Prediction Center, stated that “El Niño Watch” conditions have now been issued.

This indicates that atmospheric conditions are steadily shifting from ENSO-neutral to a full El Niño phase, which is likely to develop by June.

According to climate indicators, there is an 82 percent probability of El Niño developing between May and July. The chances of it becoming stronger during the winter season of 2026-27 are estimated to be as high as 96 percent.

Odisha May Face Irregular Rainfall and Heat Stress

Experts warn that El Niño generally leads to weaker and irregular southwest monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.

Although factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal may partially influence rainfall distribution, the overall monsoon season is expected to remain challenging.

In Odisha, interior and western districts are likely to face reduced soil moisture levels, prolonged heatwave conditions and uncertainty in rainfall patterns during the upcoming monsoon season.

Authorities Advise Caution During Thunderstorm Activity

The weather department has advised people to remain cautious during thunderstorm activity, avoid taking shelter under trees, and stay indoors during lightning and strong winds.

Farmers and residents in vulnerable districts have also been asked to stay updated with local weather advisories as changing climatic conditions continue to affect the region.