Amid growing discussions about a possible cyclonic system, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is closely monitoring developments over the Bay of Bengal. However, there is currently no confirmation of cyclone formation.

According to the latest IMD update, an upper-air cyclonic circulation is persisting over north Thailand and extends up to around 7.6 km above mean sea level. The system is expected to emerge over the north Andaman Sea around the evening of September 18. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Andaman Sea and adjoining areas around September 19.

System May Move Towards Odisha-Andhra Coast

After formation, the low-pressure system is likely to intensify gradually and move west-northwestwards during the following three to four days. It may move towards the south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts, according to the IMD.

At this stage, the system should not be described as a cyclone, and further updates from the weather department will be crucial to determine its future intensity and movement.

Rain, Thunderstorms Expected Across Odisha

Several parts of Odisha are likely to receive rain accompanied by lightning and thunderstorms over the coming days. Gusty winds of around 30-40 kmph may also occur in some areas.

On September 18, heavy rainfall is possible at one or two places in Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar and Balasore, along with thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Rainfall is expected to continue in some parts of the state on September 19 and 20, while isolated rainfall may occur on September 21 and 22.

On September 23, heavy rainfall may occur at one or two places in Mayurbhanj, Balasore, Koraput, Malkangiri, Rayagada and Gajapati, among other districts.

Farmers Advised to Monitor Weather Updates

The IMD’s September 17 update has indicated heavy-rainfall conditions for Odisha on September 18, 19 and 20. No state-level heavy-rain warning has been indicated for September 21-23 in the cited update.

With rain, lightning and thunderstorms expected in parts of Odisha, farmers have been advised to closely monitor weather alerts and follow advisories issued by the meteorological authorities.

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Even as Odisha waits to embrace the gentle onset of winter, weather experts warn of continued rainfall due to a series of low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that despite the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, the state will continue to witness intermittent rain, particularly over coastal and southern districts, till October 25.

A well-marked low-pressure area has already formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal, which is expected to move northwestwards and intensify into a depression near the Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts by Wednesday. While no cyclone warnings have been issued yet, IMD officials said they are closely monitoring the system’s development.

Series of Weather Systems on the Horizon

Noted meteorologist Dr. Sarat Sahu has indicated that another low-pressure system is likely to form between October 26 and 27, followed by a third system around October 29–30.
While the first may not intensify significantly, the latter is expected to strengthen more prominently, possibly impacting southern Odisha districts with heavier rainfall.

“The sequence of these systems could stretch the wet spell well into the end of October,” Dr. Sahu observed, adding that this chain of disturbances will delay the cooling effect normally expected during this time of the year.

Experts Predict Complex Weather Interactions

Weather analyst Dr. Surendranath Pasupalak, who studies international climate models, believes the current low-pressure system may merge with the upcoming one, resulting in a larger, unified weather pattern.
According to him, cold northerly winds, which usually mark the start of Odisha’s winter, are currently unable to enter the state due to unfavourable sea conditions and persistent humidity over the region.

“This combination of systems could delay the arrival of winter by several weeks,” Dr. Pasupalak said, noting that the state might continue to experience mild temperatures and cloudy skies through the end of October.

Impact on Crops and Agriculture

The continuous rainfall could pose challenges for farmers, especially those in the middle of paddy harvesting.
Agriculture experts have warned that excess moisture in the air may lead to pest infestations and crop diseases, particularly in low-lying and coastal districts.
Farmers have been advised to consult local agricultural officers for timely pest control measures and ensure proper drainage in paddy fields to minimize damage.

Winter Takes a Backseat for Now

With multiple low-pressure systems forming one after another and warm sea surface temperatures sustaining humidity, the long-awaited winter chill may arrive later than usual this year.
For now, Odisha’s skies will remain cloudy and moist, with light to moderate rains over several districts, delaying the seasonal shift from monsoon to winter that typically brings relief to both residents and farmers.

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