The United States and India now face a tense association as the conflict of tariffs increases, a relationship that President Donald Trump once portrayed as one of his best friendships. His repetitive tariff threats to India demonstrate his impatience and frustration, as he expects India to comply with his demands in the same way that Pakistan did. Nevertheless, the New Delhi Narendra Modi-led government has indicated that it will take all such decisions with the national interest of India as the prime concern.
Frustration by Trump based on the India-Russia relations
The core of this frustrating phenomenon is India’s expanding strategic and economic engagement with Russia, which Trump considers problematic. The US administration is interested in seeing India detach itself from Russia and enter a stronger trade and defence relationship with America. This trilateral conflict among the US, India, and Russia has placed India in a diplomatically awkward position, as it finds itself caught between two world powers that are competing to influence one another.
Nevertheless, India has shot down US demands, as the pressure has been rising. Rather, it has reflected a mirror on Washington, and the issue to be questioned is trade relations between America and Russia. This position came to the fore during a recent press conference when a foreign journalist enquired about US-Russia trade, and Trump answered vaguely that he did not know and that he would have to find out. This answer highlighted the US president’s shallow understanding of the involved complexities.
Who will give up first?
The only question is when will one side of the tariff tug-of-war crack? India has a strong stand-up-to-date, which implies that it will not retreat. India is not bowing to the US like China has done with regard to the tariffs that it has imposed on the country, like the Chinese have been. Trump, who is the businessman president, knows how to bargain, and it appears that he is trying to apply the same formula he has for China, Pakistan, and other nations with India. Keeping in view the present dynamics, this tariff battle is certain to persist in the foreseeable future.
Domestic Political Consequences
In case India succumbs to the pressure of the United States, it would be giving the opposition parties an effortless opportunity to launch attacks on the Modi government. Any indication of surrendering to Trump on tariffs would fuel the ongoing political criticism of the ruling party, which has already suffered a significant setback with the ceasefire pact with Pakistan. This scenario has seen the Congress and other minority groups come out strongly to claim that the government has succumbed to US pressure, thus raising tension in the parliament.
Why does India need to stand still?
Trump has continuously referred to India as a dead economy despite his urge to have more trade, especially within the dairy and agricultural segments. The US is hoping that India will liberalise its giant dairy industry and increase its imports of American energy and defence materials. India has made it clear that it will make its own choices based on its interests.
It is worth noting that the tariff of 25 percent that India imposed is not related to the global economy but is a strategic step towards the policies of the US. Trump’s tactics of threats, flip-flops, and arm-twisting aim more to introduce destabilisation than to reach friendly solutions. This is relevant in light of his mixed statements, which alternatively describe India as a friendly partner and as a struggling economy.
Currently, India is adopting a wait-and-watch policy, and it is optimistic that there is no need to be alarmed about the tariff threats issued by Trump.