Cyclone Threat May Rise Along India’s Coast in Coming Three Months

India’s coastal regions could face an increased threat from powerful cyclonic storms over the next three months, with the period between October and December expected to remain particularly sensitive.

According to the information attributed to the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), as many as three powerful cyclonic storms could develop over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea between October and December. The intensity of these systems is projected to be significantly higher than the average strength of cyclones recorded annually.

The warning is based on observations and data obtained through satellite and weather monitoring systems. If such systems develop, coastal areas could experience strong winds, heavy rainfall and high waves, potentially increasing the risk of damage and disruption.

44-Year Record Could Be Breached

The assessment indicates that cyclone intensity during the October-December period could reach levels not witnessed in several decades. The projected intensity is estimated to be around 83 per cent higher than the long-term average.

The report cites the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), a measure used to assess the overall energy released by tropical cyclones. For October to December, the projected PDI has been placed at around 1.30 crore, compared with an average of approximately 71 lakh recorded between 1982 and 2025.

The sharp difference between the projected figure and the long-term average has raised concerns over the possibility of more intense cyclonic activity along India’s coastline.

However, the assessment does not mean that three cyclones will necessarily make landfall in India. The eventual track, intensity, landfall location and impact of any developing system will depend on prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

With the peak post-monsoon cyclone season approaching, authorities in coastal states are expected to closely monitor weather developments and strengthen preparedness measures to minimise potential risks.