Odisha’s Litmus Test: Nuapada Vacancy Pits Ruling BJP Against Resurgent BJD and Congress

A High-Stakes Contest After Dholakia’s Demise

The death of BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia has turned the Nuapada by-election into a politically charged battle. Situated in western Odisha, Nuapada has long been known for its unpredictable outcomes, making this by-poll a trial ground for the BJP, BJD, and Congress.

BJP’s Post-Victory Litmus Test

For the ruling BJP, which ended the BJD’s 25-year reign in the 2024 Assembly polls, this election will serve as a measure of its continuing dominance. A win would reinforce its hold, while a setback could signal discontent simmering beneath the surface.

BJD’s Test Without Power

For the BJD, the Nuapada by-poll is a test of resilience in the absence of government machinery. It will also assess whether Naveen Patnaik’s enduring charisma still resonates with voters after losing power. The choice of candidate will be critical for the party’s prospects.

Congress Eyes a Comeback

The Congress, which once held strong influence in Nuapada, is looking to rebuild its base. The by-election presents an opportunity to challenge the BJP-BJD duopoly and revive its lost relevance in western Odisha politics.

History of Unpredictability

Nuapada’s political landscape has always been volatile, with the BJP and BJD frequently swapping control of the seat. In the 2024 polls, Rajendra Dholakia secured victory by a narrow margin, underlining the constituency’s reputation for nail-biting finishes.

What’s at Stake

This by-election carries significance far beyond Nuapada. It will offer a preview of Odisha’s shifting political mood and possibly foreshadow the larger political drama unfolding in the state. With voters known for springing surprises, the outcome could reshape the balance of power between the ruling party and the opposition.