Exit Polls 2026: BJP Eyes Gains in East, Faces Setbacks in South; Tight Race in West Bengal

The 2026 Assembly election cycle has concluded voting across key Indian states, and attention has now shifted to exit poll projections released by various survey agencies. The early estimates suggest a mixed political landscape—strong performances for the BJP in some regions, continued dominance of regional parties in others, and closely fought contests in several battleground states.

Assam: BJP Poised for a Hat-Trick

Exit poll projections indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to retain power in Assam, potentially securing a third consecutive term. Most surveys suggest the party is comfortably ahead of its rivals, reflecting continued voter support for its governance model in the state.

However, opposition parties are expected to retain a presence, though not enough to seriously challenge the BJP’s lead. Analysts note that local issues and welfare schemes may have played a crucial role in shaping voter sentiment.

West Bengal: Neck-and-Neck Battle Between TMC and BJP

West Bengal remains one of the most closely watched states in this election cycle. Exit polls indicate a highly competitive race between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP.

Some projections suggest that the TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, may still maintain a narrow edge due to its strong grassroots network and welfare-driven appeal. However, the BJP has significantly improved its vote share and is giving a tough fight across multiple constituencies.

According to a combined “poll of polls,” the TMC is projected to win around 144 seats, while the BJP closely follows with approximately 143 seats. The Congress is expected to remain marginal with around 2 seats.

The extremely close projections suggest a hung assembly scenario cannot be ruled out, adding to the political uncertainty in the state.

Tamil Nadu: DMK Likely to Retain Power

In Tamil Nadu, exit polls largely favor the ruling DMK alliance led by Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. The alliance is projected to retain power comfortably, riding on welfare schemes and organizational strength.

The AIADMK-BJP alliance appears to be trailing, though it is expected to remain a significant opposition force. Meanwhile, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) may influence vote splits in select constituencies, potentially affecting margins but not overall outcomes.

High voter turnout—estimated at nearly 84.7%—has added further interest to the final outcome.

Kerala: Congress-Led Alliance Holds Edge

Exit polls in Kerala suggest a potential return for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The state continues its long-standing pattern of alternating governments, with voters appearing to favor change once again.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to remain competitive, but may fall short of retaining a clear majority according to most projections.

National Picture: Regional Forces Remain Strong

Overall, the exit polls highlight a fragmented political landscape across India’s southern and eastern states. While the BJP is projected to strengthen its position in Assam, it faces challenges in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

West Bengal remains the most uncertain and closely contested battleground, with no clear winner emerging from current projections.

High Stakes Ahead of Final Results

With such tight projections in key states, especially West Bengal, both ruling and opposition camps are on edge awaiting the official counting of votes. As always, exit polls offer only early indications, and the final results may still bring surprises when declared by the Election Commission.